A CLOSER LOOK AT CLIMATE CHANGE (PART 13)

The issue of human-induced climate change is a contentious one.
There are a lot of reasonable scientists and informed lay people who cannot completely rule the human factor out. But neither can they rule it in. Anthropogenic global warming (AGW) is an hypothesis. Period. It is not a proven fact, nor, in the true sense of the word, is it even a theory. It is an hypothesis that is currently being tested by thousands of scientists of different stripes throughout the world - from the South Pole to the North Pole, on the seven continents and the seven seas. The results gleaned from the testing of the AGW hypothesis are all over the map. Models disagree with one another - eminent scientists disagree with one another. The biggest problem pertaining to the credibility of the AGW proponents is that they are trying to prove their hypothesis rather than objectively testing it. That's bad science. There is a lot of cherry-picking of data by many scientists who are desperately trying to prove that AGW is a reality. Their reputations as scientists are on the line, so it's a reasonable assumption that there will never be even a wisp of an acknowledgement by AGW proponents that maybe humans aren't entirely to blame after all.
This also holds true for the other side. AGW "deniers" have been accused of cherry-picking data as well. There is a spectrum of thought ranging from the overzealous true believers of the James E. Hansen mold to the far right-wing deniers and global-warming-is-a-hoax crowd. That AGW is a hoax is just as unproven as those who argue the AGW science is settled. The fact of the matter is that we just don't know yet. You see, the climate is a chaotic system, or series of systems, and even supercomputers have trouble with computing chaotic systems. Then, when one considers the quality of the code being used for predictive models, and the point of view of the programmers, further complications are introduced.
Then there are the cyclic systems in the world's oceans - the PDO (Pacific Decadal Oscillation) and the AMDO (Atlantic Multi-Decadal Oscillation). And the El Niño and La Niña phenomena, which are not necessarily cyclic. The extreme drought conditions in the US Southwestern states, the extreme heat over much of North America, and the unusually severe tornadic out brakes earlier this year are attributable to an unusually strong La Niña, one of the two or three strongest La Niñas in the last 100 years. One can argue that climate change is the cause of the current extreme La Niña, and unless somebody proves this not to be true, it deserves consideration.

I am a skeptic. I was formerly agnostic on the issue, but after reading various articles and blogs, and seeing interviews with scientists on both sides, I am convinced that the so-called skeptic camp is standing on firmer ground. Another thing that influenced my thinking was the childish way some of the AGW researchers behaved. There was a lot of naked vitriol directed at climatologists who questioned the veracity of the AGW research as it was being conducted, who didn't necessarily agree with their conclusions, and who didn't sign on to their political agenda. I am very, very suspicious when I see that kind of hysteria being displayed. It tells me their position might not be credible, that they're trying to run cover for a flimsy case. That is my opinion, anyway, for whatever it's worth.
One thing that really sticks in my mind is the statements by Professor David Deming concerning Dr. Jonathan Overpeck's appeal to re-write historical climate records to "get rid of the Medieval Warm Period". Moreover, Dr. Deming cited an article in Discover Magazine in 1989 where a prominent climate researcher discusses the need to amplify the evidence for and ignore the evidence against AGW. (CLCC 5 - Quack Science). While I believe Dr. Deming's categorizing AGW as a "hoax" is too strong (we don't know yet that it is a hoax) his revelations do raise legitimate questions.
We hear from the mass media, over and over, that human-caused climate change is already settled. We hear there is "overwhelming scientific evidence", there is overwhelming scientific consensus among geoscientists of every stripe. Actually, there are roughly 2500 scientists who hold that humans are at least partly responsible for climate change, and a significant sub-group of scientists who hold that humans are entirely responsible for the warming climate. Conversely, there are roughly 900 scientists who signed a petition disputing the role of humans in the changing climate. Again, there is a distribution curve, with some opinions being that humans may play a minor role, while others hold that none of the climate change is due to humans. 
Most of the clamor by geoscientists of the climate change phenomenon focuses on carbon emissions without regard to the destruction of carbon sinks such as tropical rainforests.


One of the foundations of scientific research is to probe and poke around in someone else's previously accepted theory, to seek out and find areas of weakness, and either disprove the theory or improve on it. People like Galileo Galilei, Nicholas Copernicus, and Albert Einstein fought the conventional dogma of their respective times and prevailed.

Today's conventional wisdom, as it's being communicated to us by an eager media, is this: The earth is getting warmer because of human activity, and that's THAT! It's settled. End of story.
I believe that the story is still unfolding. Only time will tell - probably a lot of time.

Following is a list of links to the articles, videos, web pages and other reference material which I've availed myself to while writing these blog articles over the past 17 days or so. If you wish to dig deeper into the AGW question, these references would be helpful and informative. I would encourage you to do so. And you can be assured - these references barely scratch the surface of the AGW debate.



CHARTS


Charts of logarithmic CO2 effect
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2010/03/08/the-logarithmic-effect-of-carbon-dioxide/

Charts I wanted to upload upload for CLCC - 8 but was blocked from doing so
http://wattsupwiththat.files.wordpress.com/2010/03/heating_effect_vs_measured_co2.png

http://wattsupwiththat.files.wordpress.com/2010/03/natural-vs-agw_warming.png

More very illuminative charts
http://wattsupwiththat.files.wordpress.com/2010/03/co2_modtrans_img2.png

http://wattsupwiththat.files.wordpress.com/2010/03/co2_modtrans_img1.png

http://wattsupwiththat.files.wordpress.com/2010/03/heating_effect_of_co2.png

http://wattsupwiththat.files.wordpress.com/2010/03/perth_temp_annual.png


Side by side comparison of the 1990 IPCC First Assessment millennial temperature record and the 2001 IPCC Third Assessment featuring the hockey stick graph
Note that these radically different charts ostensibly describing the exact same thing were published by the same organization just eleven years apart
http://a-sceptical-mind.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/01/Comparison-charts.jpg

James E. Hansen's data
GISS temperature charts
http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/
http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/Fig.A.lrg.gif
http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/Fig.A2.lrg.gif
http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/Fig.A3.lrg.gif
http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/Fig.B.lrg.gif
http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/Fig.C.lrg.gif


Global greenhouse gas pie charts
http://www.epa.gov/climatechange/emissions/globalghg.html


Link to sunspot charts
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Solar_Activity_Proxies.png


Excel charts of CO2 emissions 1980 - 2006 - Itemized
http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/international/carbondioxide.html

  YouTube video of interviews with climate experts



Interview with Lord Monckton of the UK
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bKrw6ih8Gto&NR=1&feature=fvwp

Alex Jones discusses Climategate - a must-see video
(Jones is a little over the top but he does make a few good points)
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P2153PnMzSw&NR=1

Dr. Tim Ball on Climategate
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ydo2Mwnwpac

Pro-AGW journalists confront a non-AGW journalist & shut off his microphone
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Tbj78civS-4&NR=1

A reporter confronted by armed guards after asking a UN scientist about Climategate.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aUtzMBfDrpI&feature=related

Tim Ball Interview W/ Red Ice. Parts 1 through 7 of 7 part series.  Just click on the top line and it will take you into YouTube from where you can simply navigate to each successive part within the YouTube site.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7qj5jf_7eMM
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DUxShcstKrY&feature=related
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d3LqJnomvls&feature=related
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=B6Tl3gLRbWQ&feature=related
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kcuBKe5DFjA&feature=related
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mXehhlyNUes&feature=related
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OKD1ZniB5Dc&feature=related



John Coleman interview with Glenn Beck
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ft8LfE7AI2w&feature=related

IPCC 's Jonathan Overpeck giving us his pro-AGW viewpoint
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aCVfQ-_MQXc

Jonathan Overpeck video
http://www.geo.arizona.edu/dgesl/


ARTICLES AND REPORTS

Article explaining how the quantum mechanical structure of
CO2 yields a saturation effect - also explained by Lindzen & Choi
in their paper LC2009
 http://brneurosci.org/co2.html

Discussion of how degrees of freedom for the vibration of linear molecules such as CO2 are calculated
http://www.analyticalspectroscopy.net/ap3-4.htm

This page demonstrates the three ways an excited CO2 can
vibrate. These three modes happen when CO2 absorbs longwave radiation
http://science.widener.edu/svb/ftir/ir_co2.html

Article by David Deming - the climatologist who received the
email from Jonathan Overpeck proposing the necessity of
getting rid of the Mediaval Warm Period
http://lewrockwell.com/orig9/deming3.html

Ineractive exercise where the three absorption bands of CO2
reach a saturation point at around 804 ppmv and reach a point of
inconsequencial effect under 100 ppmv
http://chemlinks.beloit.edu/warming/pdf/IRConc.pdf



Science & Public Policy –
Very Good Expose
http://scienceandpublicpolicy.org/reprint/markey_barton_letter.html

Theory that Tunguska Event contributed to a layer of
microscopic dust particles that contribute to surface warming
http://www.physorg.com/news11710.html

35 inconvenient truths – debunks Al Gore's movie
http://scienceandpublicpolicy.org/monckton/goreerrors.html

Letter about Al Gore
http://scienceandpublicpolicy.org/reprint/markey_barton_letter.html

IPCC Summary for Policy Makers
http://www.gcrio.org/OnLnDoc/pdf/wg1spm.pdf

IPCC - A library of assessment reports and other material
http://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/publications_and_data_reports.htm#1

IPCC First assessment http://www.ipcc.ch/ipccreports/far/IPCC_1990_and_1992_Assessments/English/ipcc-90-92-assessments-overview.pdf

IPCC – Third assessment
http://www.grida.no/publications/other/ipcc_tar/?src=/climate/ipcc_tar/wg1/221.htm

UNFCCC
 http://unfccc.int/methods_and_science/other_methodological_issues/items/1077.php

UNFCCC – UN plan to finance climate change policy
http://unfccc.int/files/press/backgrounders/application/pdf/fact_sheet_financing_climate_change.pdf

1934 hottest year on record
http://www.skepticalscience.com/1934-hottest-year-on-record.htm

Dr. Robert Balling article in GCMPOI
http://www.marshall.org/pdf/materials/170.pdf

Pittsburgh Times-Review article on Dr. Tim Ball
http://www.pittsburghlive.com/x/pittsburghtrib/news/mostread/s_492572.html

Article on funding for research of climate change
http://www.marshall.org/article.php?id=289


Funding of AGW reseaerch
http://www.marshall.org/pdf/materials/289.pdf

Note that anti-AGW funding comes from special interests as well, such as petroleum and coal lobbies

Article about the discredited hockey stick graph
http://a-sceptical-mind.com/the-rise-and-fall-of-the-hockey-stick

Hockey Stick article
http://www.global-warming-and-the-climate.com/mann's-hockey-stick-climate-graph.htm

About hockey stick graph being debunked
http://www.technologyreview.com/energy/13830/

About Wegman’s investigation of hockey stick chart
http://www.desmogblog.com/wegmans-report-highly-politicized-and-fatally-flawed

Critical of exoneration of Mann
http://greenhellblog.com/2010/07/14/penn-states-integrity-crisis/

The Civil Heretic - Article in NYT Magazine with Freeman Dyson
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/03/29/magazine/29Dyson-t.html

Transcript of Bob Garfield interview with Joe Romm
and Romm's acerbic response to the Dyson piece
http://www.onthemedia.org/transcripts/2009/04/10/03

An MIT article about lambda, the climate sensitivity factor
http://web.mit.edu/newsoffice/2010/explained-climate-sensitivity.html

Article on climate sensitivity
http://www.sciencebits.com/OnClimateSensitivity

Satellite re: climate science climate sensitivity from space
http://www.skepticalscience.com/Lindzen-Choi-2009-low-climate-sensitivity.htm

Satellite re: climate science climate sensitivity from space
http://www.skepticalscience.com/Lindzen-Choi-2009-low-climate-sensitivity.htm

Web site re: solar involvement in global warming
http://www.skepticalscience.com/solar-activity-sunspots-global-warming.htm

Radiative forcing
http://www.springerlink.com/content/np556415834h8862

Vertical eddies
http://www.springerlink.com/content/h4440726140826j5

Heliogenic climate change
http://www.heliogenic.net/2010/05/03/lindzen-and-chois-new-paper-out-confirms-negative-feedback-unlike-agw-climate-models/

Solar dynamo – sunspot activity
http://rsta.royalsocietypublishing.org/content/360/1801/2741.full.pdf

Sunspots and climate change
http://www.suite101.com/content/sunspots-and-climate-change-a133866

Greenhouse warming reduced
http://www.john-daly.com/bull-121.htm

Temperature records provide clue why Americans are skeptical (Page 1)http://www.associatedcontent.com/article/2691449/temperature_records_provide_clue_why.html?cat=37


Page 2
http://www.associatedcontent.com/article/2691449/temperature_records_provide_clue_why_pg2.html?cat=37

Dire global warming messages backfire
http://www.laboratoryequipment.com/News-dire-global-warming-messages-backfire-112210.aspx?xmlmenuid=51 01


Scripps Institute of Oceanography   -  http://scrippsco2.ucsd.edu/graphics_gallery/mauna_loa_record/mauna_loa_record.html

Climate Audit – Steve McIntyre
http://climateaudit.org/2010/01/18/curry-reviews-lindzen-and-choi/

Dr. Roy Spencer
http://www.drroyspencer.com/global-warming-background-articles

Anthony Watts PhD
http://wattsupwiththat.com/
http://wattsupwiththat.com/

Article describing CO2 levels following temperature changes
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2009/01/30/CO2-temperatures-and-ice-ages/


Reasoned critique of Lindzen and Choi paper by Dr. Roy Spencer
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2009/11/03/spencer-on-lindzen-and-choi-climate-feedback-paper/

Article offering a rebuttal of the claim that temperature
changes predate CO2 changes - discussion both pro and con
http://www.skepticalscience.com/co2-lags-temperature.htm

Examples of pro-AGW people railing against skeptics
http://www.skepticalscience.com/Climategate-hide-the-decline.html

Reasoned pro AGW
http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2004/12/contributors/

Lindzen & Choi;  A rebuttal article
http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2010/01/lindzen-and-choi-unraveled/

Joe Romm's pro-AGW blog
http://climateprogress.org/

Skeptic article
http://greenhouse.geologist-1011.net/

Skeptic article
http://fgservices1947.wordpress.com/2009/03/11/co2-is-a-greenhouse-gas-%e2%80%93-note-from-norm-kalmanovitch-via-ccnet/

Technical Info site
http://www.physicsforums.com/showthread.php?t=172161

Earth blackbody
http://zebu.uoregon.edu/~soper/Earth/earthtemp.html

Spörer paper
http://adsabs.harvard.edu/full/1895ApJ.....2..239V

Excel chart misrepresents CO2 – temp relationship
http://chartsgraphs.wordpress.com/2009/08/13/excel-chart-misrepresents-co2-temperature-relationship/


AGW critical of Lindzen - Choi
http://julesandjames.blogspot.com/2009/08/quick-comment-on-lindzen-and-choi.html

Joe Romm expressing himself on his blog http://climatechangepsychology.blogspot.com/2009/04/joseph-romm-on-nicholas-dawidoff.html

Subj. Lindzen - Choi
http://motls.blogspot.com/2010/01/ipcc-types-read-lindzen-choi-2009.html


Paleoclimate http://www.globalchange.umich.edu/globalchange1/current/lectures/kling/climate_models/index.html

Paleoclimate of recent past
http://www.worldviewofglobalwarming.org/pages/paleoclimate.html

Paleoclimate article                                              http://serc.carleton.edu/NAGTWorkshops/climatechange/visualizations/paleoclimate.html

Paleoclimate
http://www.news9.com/global/story.asp?s=11333682

Paleotemperature
http://img527.imageshack.us/img527/8615/allpaleotemp.png

Paleo CO2
http://img504.imageshack.us/img504/755/paleoco2all.png3

Bio of Heidi Cullen
http://www.zimbio.com/Heidi+Cullen

About Heidi Cullen and her view that skeptics should be decertified
http://www.canadafreepress.com/2007/global-warming011807.htm

Greenhouse gas
http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/1605/ggccebro/chapter1.html
http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/1605/ggccebro/chapter1.html

Article on CO2
http://www.eoearth.org/article/Carbon_dioxide

Rebuttal to idea that human greenhouse gas is miniscule
http://www.skepticalscience.com/human-co2-smaller-than-natural-emissions.htm

How much is anthropogenic
http://www.strom.clemson.edu/becker/prtm320/commons/carbon3.html

Note from Craig James re: Hansen, RealClimate,
http://icecap.us/index.php/go/politica-lclimate/hansens_ideology_makes_him_no_longer_qualified_to_be_the_keeper_of_the_glob/

Capital Climate: Interesting tidbit about Hansen’s award by AMS from contrarian perspective
http://capitalclimate.blogspot.com/2009_01_25_archive.html

Rebuttal to Craig James speech on climate skepticism – Ed Cutlip
http://www.mediamouse.org/news/2008/04/craig-james-lec.php

Critical assessment of Bill Steffen by Ed Cutlip
http://www.mediamouse.org/news/2009/04/bill-steffen-global-warming-wood-tv-8.php

Litany of skeptical commentary by credentialed scientists
http://epw.senate.gov/public/index.cfm?FuseAction=Minority.Blogs&ContentRecord_id=672bfd77-802a-23ad-4264-12316616363c

Pravda article skeptical of CC Gregory F. Fegel
http://english.pravda.ru/science/earth/11-01-2009/106922-earth_ice_age-1/

Pravda article skeptical about AGW – Gregory F. Fegel
http://english.pravda.ru/science/earth/11-01-2009/106922-earth_ice_age-2/

Article about coming ice age - Pravda
http://www.iceagenow.com/Pravda-Earth_on_the_Brink_of_an_Ice_Age.htm

Article about Pravda article
http://hotair.com/archives/2009/01/12/pravda-the-coming-ice-age/

Article about Pravda article
http://scaredmonkeys.com/2009/01/12/hey-al-gore-what-about-global-warming-pravda-says-earth-on-the-brink-of-an-ice-age/

Excellent article re: Pravda article
http://www.fcpp.org/publication.php/2578


Articles on Venus - Universe Today
http://www.universetoday.com/14140/history-of-planet-venus/
http://www.universetoday.com/23651/venus-possibly-had-continents-oceans/

Venus info
http://www.solstation.com/stars/venus.htm

How Venus lost its oceans
http://www.space.com/scienceastronomy/solarsystem/venus_oceans_020516.html


About rain forests
http://www.hipark.austinisd.org/projects/fourth/rainforests/environment.html

About Indonesia rain forest destruction
http://www.indonesiamatters.com/1252/rainforest-deforestation/

Rain forest destruction
http://library.thinkquest.org/26026/Environmental_Problems/rain_forest_destruction.htmlhttp://library.thinkquest.org/26026/Environmental_Problems/rain_forest_destruction.html

Goodbye to West Africa’s rain forests
http://news.mongabay.com/2006/0122-forests.html

Christian Science Monitor article about how recession caused emissions to decline
http://www.csmonitor.com/Environment/2010/1122/Global-warming-carbon-dioxide-emissions-worldwide-fell-in-2009


HARD COVER REFERENCES

Black Holes & Time Warps
Kip S. Thorne
1994
ISBN: 0-393-31276-3

The Whole Shebang
Timothy Ferris
1998
ISBN: 0-684-81020-4TF

Physical Chemistry - A Molecular Approach
Donald A. McQuarrie & John D. Simon
1997
ISBN: 0-9357032-99-7

ERRATA:

1. In CLCC-10
I cited the figure $70 billion the U.S. government had awarded pro AGW scientists in grant money. I've been unable to verify that figure. I've replaced that figure with $3 billion which is verifiable.

2. In CLCC - 5 
I identified Dr. Phil Jones as being a member of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Dr. Jones is the Director of Research at the Climatic Research Unit at the University of East Anglia, UK. I cannot verify he actually sits on the panel.  Dr. Jones, however, has been and continues to be closely associated with that body.

3. In CLCC - 9 I referenced China's population as outnumbering that of the U.S. by 10 to 1. With a population of 1.3 billion (not 3 billion), China's population exceeds that of the U.S. by 4.33 to 1.